Police Tero 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Police Tero at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Police Tero have posted 4W 2D 0L at Boonyachinda Stadium — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boonyachinda Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Police Tero's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Police Tero, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 53% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 47% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.77 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.087 / defence 1.041 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.884 / defence 1.593. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.085. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.593 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Police Tero games / 15 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 55% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 55% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Police Tero 1.77 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.087 / def 1.041 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.884 / def 1.593 | league avg home 1.021 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Police Tero 0 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 55% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Police Tero's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.88x) against Police Tero's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
55%
1.80
23%
4.28
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.76
1.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
4%
27.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Police Tero come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 5D 5L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Police Tero against 1.27 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Police Tero's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Police Tero are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Police Tero's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 2.33 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Police Tero have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Police Tero
0
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-3 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Police Tero, 83% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Police Tero) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Police Tero's games and 83% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Police Tero's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Police Tero 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Police Tero 0-1 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.77 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Police Tero fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.59, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 55% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 47%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.33 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.