Police Tero 0-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Thunder Dome Stadium to take on Police Tero. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Police Tero have posted 1W 5D 4L at Thunder Dome Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 0W 2D 4L from 6 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Police Tero are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.57 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (6 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (6 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 83% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 67% versus Lamphun Warrior 17%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Police Tero 50% | Lamphun Warrior 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.12 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.914 / defence 1.302 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.706 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.203. Data: 35 Police Tero games / 6 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 36% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 35%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Lamphun Warrior 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Police Tero 70% | Lamphun Warrior 25%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 36% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Police Tero 1.12 / Lamphun Warrior 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.914 / def 1.302 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.706 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lamphun Warrior xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Police Tero 0 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 36% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior in?
Police Tero (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (0.91) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.46
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.22
1.11
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.11 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Police Tero have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 1W 2D 3L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Police Tero are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Police Tero have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.33 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Police Tero's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Police Tero's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Police Tero
4
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 75%, Lamphun Warrior 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Police Tero) and 25% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Police Tero's recent matches and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Police Tero's recent games and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Police Tero's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 0-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.12 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.11 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.71 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 36% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 35%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 50%, Lamphun Warrior 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (6 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (6 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 83% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Police Tero arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.