Police Tero 1-0 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Police Tero at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Boonyachinda Stadium plays host to Police Tero versus Chiangmai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Police Tero have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 3W 2D 0L from 5 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangmai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Police Tero's favour (1.50 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chiangmai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 57% versus Chiangmai United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 50% | Chiangmai United 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.83 xG and Chiangmai United 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.198 / defence 1.083 | Chiangmai United attack 0.772 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.152. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Police Tero games / 14 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 58% | Draw 23% | Chiangmai United 20%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Chiangmai United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 60% | Chiangmai United 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 58% | Draw 23% | Chiangmai United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Police Tero 1.83 / Chiangmai United 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.198 / def 1.083 | Chiangmai United attack 0.772 / def 1.449 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chiangmai United xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Police Tero vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Chiangmai United?
Police Tero 1 - 0 Chiangmai United.
Where is Police Tero vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Chiangmai United part of?
Police Tero vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 58% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Police Tero and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Chiangmai United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (1.20) and Chiangmai United's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangmai United's attack (0.77x) against Police Tero's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.41
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.80
0.96
Chiangmai United xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
32.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Police Tero and 0.96 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Chiangmai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 5D 5L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangmai United sit at 0.43 PPG from 14 outings (1W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangmai United have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.71 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 10L in their last 14 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Chiangmai United away?
Police Tero's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 2.20 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Police Tero
0
Draws
1
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Chiangmai United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-0 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 60%, Chiangmai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Police Tero) and 40% (Chiangmai United).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangmai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Chiangmai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Police Tero's games and 60% of Chiangmai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Police Tero's recent games and 40% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Police Tero edge out Chiangmai United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Chiangmai United 1-0 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.83 xG and Chiangmai United 0.96 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Police Tero fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Chiangmai United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.20 / defence 1.08 against Chiangmai United attack 0.77 / defence 1.45, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 58% | Draw 23% | Chiangmai United 20%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 50%, Chiangmai United 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Police Tero arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.