Pattaya United 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium to take on Pattaya United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattaya United have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pattaya United's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Pattaya United) versus 0.90 (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pattaya United, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pattaya United in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattaya United 48% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattaya United 39% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 1.18 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 0.833 / defence 1.160 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.900 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.055. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Pattaya United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Pattaya United games / 23 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 37% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pattaya United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Pattaya United 70% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 37% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Pattaya United 1.18 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 0.833 / def 1.160 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.900 / def 1.462 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Pattaya United 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 37% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Pattaya United 0W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pattaya United's attack rating (0.83) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Pattaya United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.37
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
2.28
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pattaya United and 1.10 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pattaya United's recent record stands at 4W 9D 10L from 23 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 10L across 23 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pattaya United on 0.91 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pattaya United have managed 2W 5D 3L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattaya United are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 games (0.91 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattaya United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Pattaya United's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattaya United at home: 1.10 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pattaya United
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 0, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Pattaya United 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pattaya United at 70%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pattaya United) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattaya United have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Pattaya United's games and 70% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Pattaya United's matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Pattaya United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 1.18 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.46, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 37% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 39%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pattaya United 0.91 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.