Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattani stand at 2W 1D 4L from 7 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani at Rainbow Stadium this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ayutthaya FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pattani 1.00 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Pattani in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 57% versus Ayutthaya FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 71% | Ayutthaya FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.64 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.620 / defence 1.046 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.213 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Pattani's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ayutthaya FC's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Pattani games / 37 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 12% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 66%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 8.33 | Draw 4.55 | Ayutthaya FC 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Ayutthaya FC (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 25% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 12% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 40% | xG Pattani 0.64 / Ayutthaya FC 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.620 / def 1.046 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.213 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Ayutthaya FC xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 12% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 66% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pattani and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pattani's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
12%
8.17
22%
4.55
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.46
1.82
Ayutthaya FC xG
8.17
12%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
2%
50.47
35%
2.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 15.6 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Pattani and 1.82 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ayutthaya FC sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pattani's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ayutthaya FC have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.86 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.71 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 2.50 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pattani) and 50% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 50%; Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pattani's recent matches and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pattani's recent games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.