Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pitchaya Stadium plays host to Nong Bua Pitchaya versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Thai League 1 appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Uthai Thani have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Uthai Thani are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% versus Uthai Thani 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% | Uthai Thani 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.99 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.712 / defence 1.164 | Uthai Thani attack 0.942 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.214. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 36 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 24% | Draw 35% | Uthai Thani 41%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Uthai Thani 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | Uthai Thani 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 24% | Draw 35% | Uthai Thani 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.99 / Uthai Thani 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.712 / def 1.164 | Uthai Thani attack 0.942 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Uthai Thani xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 24% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.71) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.94x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
24%
4.16
35%
2.82
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.32
1.33
Uthai Thani xG
4.16
24%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
15.76
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.33 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 1L across 6 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Uthai Thani by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nong Bua Pitchaya heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Uthai Thani away?
Uthai Thani's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.33 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani?
From 2 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Uthai Thani 3-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, Uthai Thani 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 33% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 33%; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 67% of games; Uthai Thani in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 67% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 33% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nong Bua Pitchaya defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Uthai Thani 3-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.99 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.71 / defence 1.16 against Uthai Thani attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 24% | Draw 35% | Uthai Thani 41%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Nong Bua Pitchaya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 67%, Uthai Thani 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Uthai Thani arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.