Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Port FC at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Port FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 2 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 53% versus Port FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 47% | Port FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.34 xG and Port FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.767 / defence 1.003 | Port FC attack 1.106 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.236. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 34 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 37% | Draw 26% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 30% | Port FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 37% | Draw 26% | Port FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.34 / Port FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.767 / def 1.003 | Port FC attack 1.106 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Port FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 37% chance of winning, Port FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.77) and Port FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
37%
2.74
26%
3.89
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.71
1.37
Port FC xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.37 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 12W 8D 14L from 34 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 14L across 34 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.29 PPG, Port FC on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 8W 2D 6L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Port FC have gone 13W 7D 14L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Port FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.62 PPG; Port FC away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Port FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Port FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%, Port FC 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 69% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 69% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 69% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nong Bua Pitchaya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.34 xG and Port FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Port FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Port FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 37% | Draw 26% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 47%, Port FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 PPG, Port FC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.