Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 36%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Ratchaburi travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for Ratchaburi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Ratchaburi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Ratchaburi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 xG and Ratchaburi 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.874 / defence 1.310 | Ratchaburi attack 0.629 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.177. Data: 26 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 26 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 30%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Ratchaburi 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 / Ratchaburi 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.874 / def 1.310 | Ratchaburi attack 0.629 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ratchaburi xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 36% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.87) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
36%
2.78
34%
2.93
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.05
0.97
Ratchaburi xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.97 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 7D 12L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 8W 7D 11L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.08 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 4D 7L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.04 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%, Ratchaburi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 42% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Ratchaburi in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 42% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 42% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 xG and Ratchaburi 0.97 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against Ratchaburi attack 0.63 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36% | Draw 34% | Ratchaburi 30%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Ratchaburi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.