Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Ratchaburi.

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Analysis & Preview

Ratchaburi travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Ratchaburi have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) versus 1.50 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Ratchaburi 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–4 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 65% and Ratchaburi 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Ratchaburi 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.93 xG and Ratchaburi 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.937 / defence 1.531 | Ratchaburi attack 1.208 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.270. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack rating of 1.208, which lifts their away xG to 2.35. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating of 1.531 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ratchaburi's projected output up. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 20 games and Ratchaburi's last 50.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 48%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.11 | Draw 4.94 | Ratchaburi 2.10. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 78% | Total xG 4.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% — both xG figures (1.93 / 2.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 4.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 50% (last 10 away games).

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