Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Prachuap make the trip to 80th Birthday Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 3D 5L at 80th Birthday Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Ratchasima FC lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Prachuap 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Prachuap 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.822 / defence 0.941 | Prachuap attack 0.809 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.153. Data: 50 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 51 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Prachuap 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 / Prachuap 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.822 / def 0.941 | Prachuap attack 0.809 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Prachuap xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 42% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Record (7 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.81x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.02
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.08
0.88
Prachuap xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.88 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 15D 25L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.44 PPG from 50 outings (18W 18D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 7W 8D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (4W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 10W 15D 25L in their last 50 games (0.90 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Prachuap in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Prachuap have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%, Prachuap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 38% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 54% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 38% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.88 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Prachuap attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Prachuap 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.