Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Prachuap at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Prachuap make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Prachuap's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Prachuap arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Ratchasima FC lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 68% versus Prachuap 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 61% | Prachuap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.51 xG and Prachuap 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.897 / defence 1.538 | Prachuap attack 1.068 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 58 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 50%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Prachuap 2.00. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.51 / Prachuap 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.897 / def 1.538 | Prachuap attack 1.068 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Prachuap xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 27% chance of winning, Prachuap a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Record (5 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.07x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
27%
3.65
22%
4.51
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
3.59
2.08
Prachuap xG
3.65
27%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
12%
8.00
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
3%
29.21
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2.08 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 10D 11L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.64 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Current Season
Prachuap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Prachuap away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Prachuap in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Prachuap have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 50% for Prachuap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 43% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 50% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 43% of Prachuap's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.51 xG and Prachuap 2.08 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.54 against Prachuap attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 50%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 61%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.