Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Nong Bua Pitchaya at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 1.30 PPG versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Nong Bua Pitchaya 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2022, ended 0–4 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.29 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.944 / defence 1.097 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.861 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.115. Data: 34 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 34 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 30%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.29 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.944 / def 1.097 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.861 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 42% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.60
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.05
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.05 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 8D 15L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 13W 8D 13L from 34 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.21 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.24 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when Nong Bua Pitchaya won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 41%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 53% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 65% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 53% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.29 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 30%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.21 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.