Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Muangthong United to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Muangthong United — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Muangthong United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 2 for Muangthong United and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.59 xG and Muangthong United 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Muangthong United attack 1.105 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.376. Data: 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 30 Muangthong United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 35% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 42%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Muangthong United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 35% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.59 / Muangthong United 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Muangthong United attack 1.105 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Muangthong United xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 35% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
Record (4 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Muangthong United (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.85) and Muangthong United's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
35%
2.83
23%
4.39
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
3.34
1.75
Muangthong United xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
6%
16.27
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.75 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Pre-Season
Muangthong United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Muangthong United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Muangthong United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Muangthong United 2-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.59 xG and Muangthong United 1.75 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Muangthong United attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 35% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 42%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.