Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Chonburi FC travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this term (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.50 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chonburi FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% versus Chonburi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38% | Chonburi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.14 xG and Chonburi FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.931 / defence 0.897 | Chonburi FC attack 1.262 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.168. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 13 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.14 / Chonburi FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.931 / def 0.897 | Chonburi FC attack 1.262 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Chonburi FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 32% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.93) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.69
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.32
Chonburi FC xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.32 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 3D 5L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, Chonburi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 67% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Chonburi FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 50% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nakhon Ratchasima FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC finished level at 0-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.14 xG and Chonburi FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chonburi FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Chonburi FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 41%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%, Chonburi FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.