Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Nakhon Pathom welcome Police Tero to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Nakhon Pathom) versus 1.40 (Police Tero). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 80% and Police Tero 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 80% | Police Tero 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 2.24 xG and Police Tero 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.907 / defence 1.196 | Police Tero attack 1.039 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.097. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Nakhon Pathom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Nakhon Pathom games / 35 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 57% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 22%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Police Tero 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Nakhon Pathom (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Pathom at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 80% | Police Tero 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 57% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Nakhon Pathom 2.24 / Police Tero 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.907 / def 1.196 | Police Tero attack 1.039 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Police Tero xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 2 Police Tero.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 57% chance of winning, Police Tero a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Police Tero (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.91) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.76
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.60
1.36
Police Tero xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
2%
42.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.36 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Pathom's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Pathom by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Police Tero heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.60 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Police Tero in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Police Tero have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Police Tero 1-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Pathom at 80%, Police Tero at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Nakhon Pathom and 100% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 100% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 100% of Police Tero's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Police Tero tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 2.24 xG and Police Tero 1.36 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Police Tero attack 1.04 / defence 1.38, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 57% | Draw 21% | Police Tero 22%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Police Tero win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 90% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 80%, Police Tero 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Police Tero winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Police Tero conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.