Muangthong United 2-0 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Muangthong United welcome Chiangmai United to Thunder Dome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at Thunder Dome Stadium this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Muangthong United have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Muangthong United register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Chiangmai United in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Chiangmai United trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 67% and Chiangmai United 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 58% | Chiangmai United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.06 xG and Chiangmai United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.311 / defence 1.227 | Chiangmai United attack 0.875 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.162. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.538 — this is suppressing Muangthong United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Muangthong United games / 12 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 56% | Draw 21% | Chiangmai United 23%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Chiangmai United 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 100% | Chiangmai United 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 56% | Draw 21% | Chiangmai United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Muangthong United 2.06 / Chiangmai United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.311 / def 1.227 | Chiangmai United attack 0.875 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chiangmai United xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United?
Muangthong United 2 - 0 Chiangmai United.
Where is Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United part of?
Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 56% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Muangthong United and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Chiangmai United in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.31x the league average against Chiangmai United's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangmai United's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.72
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.30
1.25
Chiangmai United xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
3%
34.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.25 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 5W 4D 3L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangmai United's form line: 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.83 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Chiangmai United away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.33 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Chiangmai United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Muangthong United
1
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 1, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Chiangmai United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Muangthong United at 100%, Chiangmai United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Muangthong United and 67% for Chiangmai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangmai United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Chiangmai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Muangthong United's games and 67% of Chiangmai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Muangthong United's matches and 67% of Chiangmai United's.
Do Muangthong United and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Chiangmai United 2-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.06 xG and Chiangmai United 1.25 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangmai United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.31 / defence 1.23 against Chiangmai United attack 0.88 / defence 1.54, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 56% | Draw 21% | Chiangmai United 23%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 58%, Chiangmai United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.