Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayong FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Rayong FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Rayong FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rayong FC are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2025, ended 3–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 58% and Rayong FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 54% | Rayong FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.36 xG and Rayong FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.019 / defence 1.337 | Rayong FC attack 1.013 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.155. Data: 43 Lamphun Warrior games / 43 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Rayong FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.36 / Rayong FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.019 / def 1.337 | Rayong FC attack 1.013 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Rayong FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 2 Rayong FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 30% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
30%
3.30
30%
3.31
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.92
1.56
Rayong FC xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.77
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.56 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 10W 16D 17L from 43 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 17L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.07 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 16D 17L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Rayong FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.38 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Lamphun Warrior won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Rayong FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 57%, Rayong FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lamphun Warrior) and 57% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 67% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 57% of Rayong FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC finished level at 2-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.36 xG and Rayong FC 1.56 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.02 / defence 1.34 against Rayong FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 30% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 39%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Rayong FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG, Rayong FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.