Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Prachuap travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 1W 8D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Prachuap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Prachuap and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 58% versus Prachuap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 49% | Prachuap 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.44 xG and Prachuap 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.997 / defence 1.106 | Prachuap attack 0.909 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.151. Data: 53 Lamphun Warrior games / 53 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 41% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 28%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Prachuap 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 41% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.44 / Prachuap 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.997 / def 1.106 | Prachuap attack 0.909 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Prachuap xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 41% chance of winning, Prachuap a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (7 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 3 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.27
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.59
1.16
Prachuap xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.16 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 12W 22D 19L from 53 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 15L across 53 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.09 PPG, Prachuap on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 8W 12D 6L from 26 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 5W 9D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.51 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 22D 19L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 20W 18D 15L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.38 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Prachuap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 62%, Prachuap 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lamphun Warrior) and 42% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 58% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 42% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.44 xG and Prachuap 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 41% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 28%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 49%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.09 PPG, Prachuap 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.