Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Thai League 1 appearances (0.00 PPG). Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season.
Khon Kaen United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 83% of games.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamphun Warrior 8% | Khon Kaen United 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 17% | Khon Kaen United 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.74 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.523 / defence 1.482 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.659 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.237. Lamphun Warrior's attack strength of 0.523 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Lamphun Warrior games / 42 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 31% | Khon Kaen United 47%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Khon Kaen United 2.13. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 0% | Khon Kaen United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 31% | Khon Kaen United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.74 / Khon Kaen United 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.523 / def 1.482 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.659 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Khon Kaen United xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.66x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
22%
4.50
31%
3.23
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
1.95
1.21
Khon Kaen United xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 17.3 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.21 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 3D 8L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (1W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 0.67 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 8% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Khon Kaen United's away record (0.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 0.00 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Lamphun Warrior) and 50% (Khon Kaen United) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Lamphun Warrior and 25% for Khon Kaen United.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 100% of games; Khon Kaen United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 25% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.74 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.21 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.52 / defence 1.48 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 22% | Draw 31% | Khon Kaen United 47%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 17%, Khon Kaen United 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 21%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 8% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.50 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.