Lamphun Warrior 0-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chonburi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.07 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamphun Warrior 0% | Chonburi FC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 0% | Chonburi FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.87 xG and Chonburi FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.711 / defence 1.115 | Chonburi FC attack 1.133 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.120. Lamphun Warrior's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Lamphun Warrior games / 33 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 23% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.00. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 0% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 23% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.87 / Chonburi FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.711 / def 1.115 | Chonburi FC attack 1.133 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Chonburi FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 23% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.71) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.13x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
23%
4.34
27%
3.68
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.28
1.42
Chonburi FC xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.4 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.42 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chonburi FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Lamphun Warrior or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Chonburi FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Lamphun Warrior and 33% for Chonburi FC.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 67%; Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 33% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 33% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Lamphun Warrior 0-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.87 xG and Chonburi FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.71 / defence 1.11 against Chonburi FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 23% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 50%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 0%, Chonburi FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Lamphun Warrior shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.