Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 1.30 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 65% and Ayutthaya FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 49% | Ayutthaya FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.02 xG and Ayutthaya FC 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.000 / defence 1.187 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ayutthaya FC's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Lamphun Warrior games / 37 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 17% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Ayutthaya FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Ayutthaya FC (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 17% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.02 / Ayutthaya FC 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.000 / def 1.187 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Ayutthaya FC xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 17% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 1.00x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
17%
5.90
22%
4.56
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.11
2.09
Ayutthaya FC xG
5.90
17%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
2%
47.62
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 2.09 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 7W 18D 12L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.05 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (3W 10D 5L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 5D 4L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.22 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 18D 12L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.06 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-2 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 72%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.