Lampang FC 1-3 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Chonburi FC travel to Lampang Provincial Stadium to take on Lampang FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lampang FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC's home record at Lampang Provincial Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lampang FC 0.70 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lampang FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lampang FC have won 0, Chonburi FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 0–4 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lampang FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lampang FC 50% versus Chonburi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 50% | Chonburi FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 0.98 xG and Chonburi FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.621 / defence 1.352 | Chonburi FC attack 0.899 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.141. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Lampang FC games / 56 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 26% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 2.17. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Lampang FC 60% | Chonburi FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 26% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Lampang FC 0.98 / Chonburi FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.621 / def 1.352 | Chonburi FC attack 0.899 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Chonburi FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC?
Lampang FC 1 - 3 Chonburi FC.
Where is Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 26% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lampang FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lampang FC 0W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Lampang FC and Chonburi FC in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lampang FC's attack at 0.62x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Lampang FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
26%
3.80
28%
3.60
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.39
Chonburi FC xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
7%
15.21
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.39 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Lampang FC have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 3W 7D 16L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 11W 4D 11L from 26 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lampang FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lampang FC have posted 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lampang FC are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 3W 7D 16L in their last 26 games (0.62 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 11W 4D 11L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lampang FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lampang FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lampang FC or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lampang FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lampang FC
0
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 0, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Lampang FC 1-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Lampang FC and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lampang FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lampang FC 50%, Chonburi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lampang FC) and 42% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Lampang FC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lampang FC's recent matches and 50% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lampang FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lampang FC's recent games and 42% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lampang FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Lampang FC 1-3 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 0.98 xG and Chonburi FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Chonburi FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 26% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 46%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 50%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lampang FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.