Khon Kaen United 0-3 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Khon Kaen United (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khon Kaen United face Prachuap.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United host Prachuap at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's home record at Khon Kaen Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Khon Kaen Stadium.
Prachuap — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Khon Kaen United have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Prachuap 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 48% versus Prachuap 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 37% | Prachuap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.36 xG and Prachuap 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.875 / defence 0.894 | Prachuap attack 0.977 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.105. Data: 54 Khon Kaen United games / 54 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 45% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Prachuap 3.85. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 40% | Prachuap 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 45% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.36 / Prachuap 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.875 / def 0.894 | Prachuap attack 0.977 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Prachuap xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 3 Prachuap.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 45% chance of winning, Prachuap a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): Khon Kaen United 2W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Prachuap in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khon Kaen United's attack rating (0.88) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.43
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.33
0.96
Prachuap xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.96 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 15W 18D 21L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 13W 14D 27L from 54 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.17 PPG, Prachuap on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khon Kaen United have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (10W 10D 6L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 6W 6D 14L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.07 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 15W 18D 21L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 13W 14D 27L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Prachuap away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.54 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Khon Kaen United
1
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 3, Prachuap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Khon Kaen United 1-4 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 38%, Prachuap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Khon Kaen United) and 62% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 42% of games; Prachuap in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 62% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 62% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Khon Kaen United 0-3 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.36 xG and Prachuap 0.96 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Prachuap outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against Prachuap attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 45% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 37%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Prachuap's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.17 PPG, Prachuap 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.