Khon Kaen United 1-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya make the trip to Khon Kaen Stadium to face Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khon Kaen United have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.57 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Khon Kaen Stadium, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games (1.17 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.17 vs 0.57). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 67% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 67% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 0.99 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.746 / defence 1.658 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.779 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.324. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Khon Kaen United games / 6 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 19% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 51%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.96. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 19% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Khon Kaen United 0.99 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.746 / def 1.658 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.779 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 19% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.57 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.75x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.78x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
19%
5.34
30%
3.33
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.70
1.71
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
5.34
19%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
3%
29.53
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.71 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Khon Kaen United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nong Bua Pitchaya won 6-1 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
1
Draws
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 67%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Khon Kaen United) and 33% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 33%; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Khon Kaen United's games and 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 0.99 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.71 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.75 / defence 1.66 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 19% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 51%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 67%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Khon Kaen United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khon Kaen United conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.