Khon Kaen United 0-7 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC meet at Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Khon Kaen United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC (all games): 1W 2D 0L across 3 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Chonburi FC are the stronger side — 0.67 PPG clear of the hosts (1.67 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khon Kaen United 33% and Chonburi FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 33% | Chonburi FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.50 xG and Chonburi FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.848 / defence 1.264 | Chonburi FC attack 1.083 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.129. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Khon Kaen United games / 3 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Chonburi FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 33% | Chonburi FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.50 / Chonburi FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.848 / def 1.264 | Chonburi FC attack 1.083 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Chonburi FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 7 Chonburi FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 34% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.08x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.29
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
3.05
1.55
Chonburi FC xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.55 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Khon Kaen United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khon Kaen United.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 0-7 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Khon Kaen United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Khon Kaen United, 100% for Chonburi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Khon Kaen United) and 67% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Khon Kaen United's games and 100% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Khon Kaen United 0-7 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.50 xG and Chonburi FC 1.55 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 5.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Chonburi FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.30, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 36%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 33%, Chonburi FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Khon Kaen United shipped 7 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC scored 7 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.