Kanchanaburi 1-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayong FC at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kanchanaburi Province Stadium plays host to Kanchanaburi versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 23 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kanchanaburi have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi's home record at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rayong FC arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kanchanaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rayong FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Kanchanaburi — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 46% versus Rayong FC 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 36% | Rayong FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.29 xG and Rayong FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.968 / defence 1.089 | Rayong FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.218. Data: 11 Kanchanaburi games / 41 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 32% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Rayong FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rayong FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayong FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kanchanaburi 60% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 32% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Kanchanaburi 1.29 / Rayong FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.968 / def 1.089 | Rayong FC attack 1.032 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Rayong FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 32% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kanchanaburi's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (1.03x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
32%
3.17
33%
3.01
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.66
1.37
Rayong FC xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.37 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Kanchanaburi have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 1W 5D 5L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rayong FC are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kanchanaburi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kanchanaburi have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Kanchanaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Rayong FC away?
Kanchanaburi's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.20 PPG; Rayong FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kanchanaburi
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 0, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Rayong FC 2-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rayong FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Kanchanaburi, 80% for Rayong FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kanchanaburi) and 40% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kanchanaburi's games and 80% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 40% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi and Rayong FC finished level at 1-1 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.29 xG and Rayong FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Rayong FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 32% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 35%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 36%, Rayong FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.