Chonburi FC 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Ratchaburi are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Chonburi FC 2W, Ratchaburi 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.50 xG and Ratchaburi 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.864 / defence 1.150 | Ratchaburi attack 1.279 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.364. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 1 Chonburi FC games / 31 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 27% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 48%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 2.08. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 27% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Chonburi FC 1.50 / Ratchaburi 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.864 / def 1.150 | Ratchaburi attack 1.279 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Ratchaburi xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Chonburi FC 0 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 27% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.86) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.28x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
27%
3.67
25%
4.00
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.51
2.01
Ratchaburi xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
4%
27.31
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 2.01 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.00 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 100%.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 100% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 0% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Chonburi FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.50 xG and Ratchaburi 2.01 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ratchaburi attack 1.28 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 27% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 48%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 0%, Ratchaburi 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.00 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.