Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rasi Salai United make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rasi Salai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Rasi Salai United have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Chonburi FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Rasi Salai United (0.80 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rasi Salai United in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rasi Salai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 60% and Rasi Salai United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chonburi FC 60% | Rasi Salai United 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 2.29 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.907 / defence 1.107 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.989 / defence 1.729. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Rasi Salai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.729 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Chonburi FC games / 5 Rasi Salai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 57% | Draw 21% | Rasi Salai United 23%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Rasi Salai United 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Rasi Salai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 57% | Draw 21% | Rasi Salai United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Chonburi FC 2.29 / Rasi Salai United 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.907 / def 1.107 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.989 / def 1.729 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Rasi Salai United xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 57% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Rasi Salai United's defensive record (1.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Rasi Salai United's attack (0.99x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
57%
1.77
21%
4.78
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.70
1.41
Rasi Salai United xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
10%
9.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
2%
43.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.41 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 5L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United's form line: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, 0.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Chonburi FC against 0.20 for Rasi Salai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
On the road, Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 games (0.00 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Rasi Salai United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (0.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 0.00 PPG; Rasi Salai United away: 0.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Chonburi FC, 100% for Rasi Salai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chonburi FC and 100% for Rasi Salai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chonburi FC's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chonburi FC's matches and 100% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.