Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rasi Salai United make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rasi Salai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Chonburi FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Rasi Salai United (1.40 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rasi Salai United in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Rasi Salai United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.957 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Chonburi FC games / 1 Rasi Salai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 56% | Draw 25% | Rasi Salai United 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Rasi Salai United 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 56% | Draw 25% | Rasi Salai United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Chonburi FC 1.70 / Rasi Salai United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / def 0.957 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Rasi Salai United xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 56% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Rasi Salai United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Rasi Salai United's attack (0.85x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.98
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.89
Rasi Salai United xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
28.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.89 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Chonburi FC against 0.00 for Rasi Salai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Rasi Salai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.