Chonburi FC 1-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Port FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 November 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chonburi FC at 1.80 PPG versus Port FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chonburi FC, 0 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2022, ended 3–2 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 61% versus Port FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 52% | Port FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Port FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.109 / defence 0.873 | Port FC attack 1.125 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.159. Data: 44 Chonburi FC games / 44 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 44% | Draw 27% | Port FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 44% | Draw 27% | Port FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Chonburi FC 1.45 / Port FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.109 / def 0.873 | Port FC attack 1.125 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Port FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Port FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 25 November 2022 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Chonburi FC 1 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Port FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chonburi FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 0 | Port FC 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.71
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.14
Port FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.14 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 11D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (16W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.61 PPG, Port FC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Port FC have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Port FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Port FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Port FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 62%, Port FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chonburi FC) and 62% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Chonburi FC's games and 67% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Chonburi FC's matches and 62% of Port FC's.
Do Chonburi FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Port FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Port FC 1-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Port FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 44% | Draw 27% | Port FC 29%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 52%, Port FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.61 PPG, Port FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.