Chonburi FC 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya meet at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Chonburi FC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Nong Bua Pitchaya's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chonburi FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 2–3 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 64% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 56% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.006 / defence 0.887 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.854 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.158. Data: 36 Chonburi FC games / 36 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 4.35. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 70% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Chonburi FC 1.45 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.006 / def 0.887 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.854 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chonburi FC 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 51% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.85x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
51%
1.98
27%
3.74
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.33
0.88
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
18.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.88 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 17W 8D 11L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.33 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 6D 8L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Chonburi FC, 67% for Nong Bua Pitchaya — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 56% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chonburi FC's games and 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 56% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.88 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 56%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.64 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.