Chonburi FC 1-1 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Chiangmai United travel to Chonburi Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.38 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.12 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 2W 1D 1L at Chonburi Stadium — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 1W 2D 5L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 0.62 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Chonburi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.76 PPG ahead (1.38 vs 0.62). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Chiangmai United in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 50% versus Chiangmai United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Chiangmai United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.77 xG and Chiangmai United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.198 / defence 1.158 | Chiangmai United attack 0.848 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.273. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Chonburi FC games / 8 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 23% | Chiangmai United 27%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Chiangmai United 3.70. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 75% | Chiangmai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 23% | Chiangmai United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Chonburi FC 1.77 / Chiangmai United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.198 / def 1.158 | Chiangmai United attack 0.848 / def 1.480 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chiangmai United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Chiangmai United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 50% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Chiangmai United's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangmai United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.29
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.25
Chiangmai United xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.25 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangmai United sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chonburi FC's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangmai United have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.88 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Chiangmai United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 75%, Chiangmai United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Chonburi FC and 75% for Chiangmai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangmai United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Chiangmai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Chonburi FC's games and 50% of Chiangmai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chonburi FC's matches and 75% of Chiangmai United's.
Do Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Chonburi FC and Chiangmai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.77 xG and Chiangmai United 1.25 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.16 against Chiangmai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.48, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 23% | Chiangmai United 27%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 50%, Chiangmai United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.