Chonburi FC 2-0 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chonburi FC and Buriram United meet at Chonburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's home record at Chonburi Stadium: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Thai League 1 appearances (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Buriram United have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Chonburi FC against 2.20 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 67% versus Buriram United 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 58% | Buriram United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.16 xG and Buriram United 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.153 / defence 1.166 | Buriram United attack 0.892 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.188. Data: 12 Chonburi FC games / 12 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 34% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 38%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 83% | Buriram United 20%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 34% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Chonburi FC 1.16 / Buriram United 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.153 / def 1.166 | Buriram United attack 0.892 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Buriram United xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Chonburi FC 2 - 0 Buriram United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 34% chance of winning, Buriram United a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chonburi FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Buriram United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (0.89x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.61
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.24
Buriram United xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.24 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 6W 3D 3L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 8W 2D 2L from 12 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.58 scored and 0.50 conceded. Chonburi FC's scoring rate against Buriram United's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Buriram United in 25%.
Defensively: Buriram United in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Buriram United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Buriram United away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Buriram United in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 5-0 on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Buriram United 5-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 80%, Buriram United 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Chonburi FC) and 20% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 40%; Buriram United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 20% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 20% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Buriram United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Buriram United 2-0 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.16 xG and Buriram United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Buriram United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against Buriram United attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 34% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 38%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Chonburi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 58%, Buriram United 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.75. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.