Chonburi FC 1-2 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BG Pathum United (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chonburi FC face BG Pathum United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Chonburi FC welcome BG Pathum United to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 1W 5D 3L from 9 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.89 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Thai League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. BG Pathum United's 1.50 PPG return is 0.61 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.89 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 3 for BG Pathum United and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus BG Pathum United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 33% | BG Pathum United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.06 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.674 / defence 0.996 | BG Pathum United attack 0.988 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.201. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Chonburi FC games / 39 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 36%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | BG Pathum United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 50% | BG Pathum United 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Chonburi FC 1.06 / BG Pathum United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.674 / def 0.996 | BG Pathum United attack 0.988 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 2 BG Pathum United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 30% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
Record (6 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 2 | BG Pathum United 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 1W-5D-3L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.67x the league average against BG Pathum United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.00
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.25
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.18 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 1W 5D 3L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 1W 5D 3L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 0.50 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when BG Pathum United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 50%, BG Pathum United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Chonburi FC and 50% for BG Pathum United.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 50% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Chonburi FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Chonburi FC 1-2 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.06 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.00 against BG Pathum United attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 30% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 36%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 33%, BG Pathum United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.