Chonburi FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Chonburi FC welcome Ayutthaya FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.60 (Ayutthaya FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ayutthaya FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 62% and Ayutthaya FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 43% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.079 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.983 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.130. Data: 21 Chonburi FC games / 21 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 30% | Ayutthaya FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Ayutthaya FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 30% | Ayutthaya FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Chonburi FC 1.33 / Ayutthaya FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.918 / def 1.079 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.983 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ayutthaya FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Chonburi FC 0 - 1 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 38% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.31
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.20
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.20 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 6W 7D 8L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 6W 8D 7L from 21 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.19 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.30 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 70%, Ayutthaya FC at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Ayutthaya FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Chonburi FC's games and 60% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 30% | Ayutthaya FC 32%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ayutthaya FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 43%, Ayutthaya FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.19 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.