Chiangrai United 2-2 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Chiangrai United take on Suphanburi.

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Full Analysis

LEO Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Suphanburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Chiangrai United have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Chiangrai United's home record at LEO Chiangrai Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Suphanburi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Suphanburi have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.30 for Suphanburi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chiangrai United 1W, Suphanburi 0W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Suphanburi half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 36% versus Suphanburi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 40% | Suphanburi 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 0.96 xG and Suphanburi 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.696 / defence 1.067 | Suphanburi attack 0.697 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.156. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suphanburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Chiangrai United games / 25 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 34% | Draw 36% | Suphanburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Suphanburi 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 20% | Suphanburi 60% BTTS from recent games.

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