Chiangrai United 0-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ratchaburi travel to LEO Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's home record at LEO Chiangrai Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at LEO Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.10 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 0 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 54% versus Ratchaburi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangrai United 48% | Ratchaburi 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Ratchaburi 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.202 / defence 1.036 | Ratchaburi attack 0.841 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.168. Data: 52 Chiangrai United games / 52 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 25%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Ratchaburi 4.00. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 80% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Chiangrai United 1.46 / Ratchaburi 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.202 / def 1.036 | Ratchaburi attack 0.841 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ratchaburi xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United 0 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 46% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (1.20) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.46
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.48
1.02
Ratchaburi xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.02 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 22W 15D 15L from 52 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 18L across 52 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.56 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 11W 7D 7L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.10 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 22W 15D 15L in their last 52 games (1.56 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.60 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 52%, Ratchaburi 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chiangrai United) and 24% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 28% of games; Ratchaburi in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 36% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 24% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chiangrai United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.46 xG and Ratchaburi 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 46% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 25%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 48%, Ratchaburi 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.56 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.