Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Port FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangrai United lead 2W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Port FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 51% versus Port FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 42% | Port FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.11 xG and Port FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.784 / defence 1.055 | Port FC attack 1.101 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.124. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Chiangrai United games / 54 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 33% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Port FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chiangrai United 40% | Port FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 33% | Port FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Chiangrai United 1.11 / Port FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.784 / def 1.055 | Port FC attack 1.101 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Port FC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Port FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Port FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 29% chance of winning, Port FC a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chiangrai United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Record (9 meetings): Chiangrai United 2W | Draws 4 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.10x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
29%
3.45
33%
3.06
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.42
1.30
Port FC xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.30 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United come into this having played 53 games, going 17W 14D 22L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.68 PPG from 53 outings (25W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chiangrai United's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Port FC have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Port FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.72 PPG; Port FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Port FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 32%, Port FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Chiangrai United) and 40% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 28% of games; Port FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 48% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 40% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Port FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Port FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Chiangrai United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chiangrai United 1-2 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.11 xG and Port FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Port FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 33% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 42%, Port FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.