Chiangrai United vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Pattani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Pattani travel to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.50 xG and Pattani 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.913 / defence 0.810 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Chiangrai United games / 1 Pattani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 27% | Pattani 18%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Pattani 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 0.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 55% | Draw 27% | Pattani 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Chiangrai United 1.50 / Pattani 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.913 / def 0.810 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Pattani xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Pattani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Pattani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 55% chance of winning, Pattani a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chiangrai United and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Pattani in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Pattani's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.65
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.25
0.75
Pattani xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
4%
24.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.75 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Pattani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Pattani tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.