Buriram United vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Ratchaburi meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Buriram United have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Ratchaburi managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 60% versus Ratchaburi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 66% | Ratchaburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.68 xG and Ratchaburi 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.181 / defence 0.991 | Ratchaburi attack 1.081 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 35 Buriram United games / 35 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 44% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 31%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 50% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 44% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Buriram United 1.68 / Ratchaburi 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.181 / def 0.991 | Ratchaburi attack 1.081 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ratchaburi xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Chang Arena.
Where is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 44% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Buriram United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Buriram United 6W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.08x) against Buriram United's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.96
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.06
1.38
Ratchaburi xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
6%
17.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.38 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United's recent record stands at 26W 5D 4L from 35 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 6D 8L across 35 games — 1.97 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 13W 3D 1L from 17 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 10W 2D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.89 scored and 0.97 conceded. Buriram United's scoring rate against Ratchaburi's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 26W 5D 4L in their last 35 games (2.37 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 21W 6D 8L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Buriram United's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.47 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Buriram United
3
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 59%, Ratchaburi 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Buriram United and 65% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Buriram United's games and 71% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Buriram United's matches and 65% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Buriram United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.