BG Pathum United 1-0 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Pattaya United travel to LEO Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 November 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BG Pathum United stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United at LEO Stadium this season: 5W 0D 2L from 7 home games — 2.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pattaya United — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pattaya United's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Pattaya United in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 36% versus Pattaya United 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 36% | Pattaya United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.06 xG and Pattaya United 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.909 / defence 1.022 | Pattaya United attack 0.722 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.188. Data: 11 BG Pathum United games / 12 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 30%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Pattaya United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 29% | Pattaya United 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG BG Pathum United 1.06 / Pattaya United 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.909 / def 1.022 | Pattaya United attack 0.722 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pattaya United xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United?
BG Pathum United 1 - 0 Pattaya United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 39% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both BG Pathum United and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Pattaya United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.91) and Pattaya United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattaya United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.19
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
1.93
0.88
Pattaya United xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.88 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BG Pathum United's recent record stands at 7W 2D 2L from 11 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pattaya United, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 4L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pattaya United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BG Pathum United have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pattaya United's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 1.09 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United in 64%.
Defensively: BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Pattaya United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Pattaya United away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Pattaya United away: 0.83 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Pattaya United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Pattaya United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BG Pathum United and Pattaya United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
BG Pathum United
0
Draws
0
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 2, Pattaya United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2022, when Pattaya United 0-3 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Pattaya United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pattaya United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 33%, Pattaya United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (BG Pathum United) and 33% (Pattaya United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pattaya United in 33%; BG Pathum United have failed to score in 33% of games; Pattaya United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Pattaya United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 50% of Pattaya United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 33% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Pattaya United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Pattaya United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Pattaya United 1-0 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.06 xG and Pattaya United 0.88 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pattaya United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Pattaya United attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 30%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 36%, Pattaya United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pattaya United's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.