BG Pathum United 2-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Khon Kaen United travel to LEO Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BG Pathum United — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Khon Kaen United have recorded 1W 0D 3L from 4 outings — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, BG Pathum United have the edge — a 1.25 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.75) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.51 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.068 / defence 1.013 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.680 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.384. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 BG Pathum United games / 4 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 48% | Draw 30% | Khon Kaen United 22%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Khon Kaen United 4.55. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 48% | Draw 30% | Khon Kaen United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG BG Pathum United 1.51 / Khon Kaen United 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.068 / def 1.013 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.680 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Khon Kaen United xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United?
BG Pathum United 2 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 48% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.30
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Khon Kaen United xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.95 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BG Pathum United's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khon Kaen United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.00 scored and 4.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United in 0%.
Defensively: BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have BG Pathum United or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
BG Pathum United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when BG Pathum United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
0
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 5, Khon Kaen United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when BG Pathum United 4-1 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 0% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Khon Kaen United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Khon Kaen United 2-1 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.51 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.68 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 48% | Draw 30% | Khon Kaen United 22%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 0%, Khon Kaen United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Khon Kaen United scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 4.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.