Bangkok United 3-1 Sisaket United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bangkok United at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bangkok United vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bangkok United host Sisaket United at Thammasat Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bangkok United stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bangkok United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bangkok United's home record at Thammasat Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bangkok United are significantly better at Thammasat Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.85 xG and Sisaket United 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.082 / defence 1.049 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Bangkok United games / 0 Sisaket United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 59% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 14%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Sisaket United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 59% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Bangkok United 1.85 / Sisaket United 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.082 / def 1.049 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sisaket United xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Sisaket United kick off?
Bangkok United vs Sisaket United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Sisaket United?
Bangkok United 3 - 1 Sisaket United.
Where is Bangkok United vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Sisaket United part of?
Bangkok United vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 59% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bangkok United and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bangkok United and Sisaket United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bangkok United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.08) and Sisaket United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Bangkok United's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.69
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.70
0.85
Sisaket United xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
2%
44.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.85 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Sisaket United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Pre-Season
Sisaket United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bangkok United and Sisaket United runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Bangkok United
0
Draws
0
Sisaket United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Sisaket United?
From 1 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 1, Sisaket United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Sisaket United last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Bangkok United 3-1 Sisaket United.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Sisaket United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bangkok United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sisaket United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Sisaket United 3-1 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.85 xG and Sisaket United 0.85 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bangkok United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Sisaket United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 59% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 14%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.