Bangkok United 1-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bangkok United at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bangkok United host Kanchanaburi at Thammasat Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bangkok United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thammasat Stadium, Bangkok United have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bangkok United are significantly better at Thammasat Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Kanchanaburi have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi away from home this season: 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bangkok United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bangkok United have won 0, Kanchanaburi 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bangkok United in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bangkok United 67% and Kanchanaburi 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 60% | Kanchanaburi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 2.62 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.261 / defence 1.128 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.734 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.192. Bangkok United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bangkok United games / 15 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 71% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 11%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Kanchanaburi 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Bangkok United 90% | Kanchanaburi 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 71% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 59% | xG Bangkok United 2.62 / Kanchanaburi 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.261 / def 1.128 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.734 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kanchanaburi xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi?
Bangkok United 1 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 71% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Bangkok United 0W | Draws 1 | Kanchanaburi 0W.
What form are Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bangkok United's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Kanchanaburi's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. The same calculation in reverse, Kanchanaburi's attack versus Bangkok United's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.47
11%
9.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
3.60
0.99
Kanchanaburi xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.47
18%
Draw
9.34
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
7%
13.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
1%
127.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.99 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 7W 5D 3L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi's form line: 1W 7D 7L from 15 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kanchanaburi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bangkok United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bangkok United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Kanchanaburi in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 7D 7L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.00 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Kanchanaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kanchanaburi in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bangkok United
2
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 0, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Bangkok United 1-1 Kanchanaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kanchanaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bangkok United at 100%, Kanchanaburi at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Bangkok United and 38% for Kanchanaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Kanchanaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bangkok United's games and 50% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bangkok United vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Bangkok United's matches and 38% of Kanchanaburi's.
Do Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Bangkok United and Kanchanaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.62 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.99 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.26 / defence 1.13 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 71% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 11%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 60%, Kanchanaburi 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.