Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Chonburi FC travel to Ayutthaya Province Stadium to take on Ayutthaya FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ayutthaya FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ayutthaya FC, 1 for Chonburi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ayutthaya FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 58% versus Chonburi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 47% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.22 xG and Chonburi FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.058 | Chonburi FC attack 0.912 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 37 Ayutthaya FC games / 36 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 31% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ayutthaya FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Chonburi FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 31% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.22 / Chonburi FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / def 1.058 | Chonburi FC attack 0.912 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Chonburi FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 31% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.56
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.41
Chonburi FC xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.41 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ayutthaya FC's recent record stands at 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 16L across 36 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ayutthaya FC on 1.25 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ayutthaya FC have managed 3W 4D 11L from 18 games — 0.72 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.72 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 67%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ayutthaya FC) and 61% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 61% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.