Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yverdon Sport have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Municipal, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Yverdon Sport, 2 for FC ST. Gallen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Yverdon Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 58% versus FC ST. Gallen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 58% | FC ST. Gallen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.816 / defence 1.064 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.814 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.181. Data: 66 Yverdon Sport games / 66 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 39% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 31%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | FC ST. Gallen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yverdon Sport at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 40% | FC ST. Gallen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 39% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.19 / FC ST. Gallen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.816 / def 1.064 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.814 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC ST. Gallen xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 6 May 2025 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Yverdon Sport 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 39% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (6 meetings): Yverdon Sport 3W | Draws 1 | FC ST. Gallen 2W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.81x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.32
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.02 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yverdon Sport's recent record stands at 21W 17D 33L from 71 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
FC ST. Gallen, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 23L across 71 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.46 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yverdon Sport have managed 18W 7D 10L from 35 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC ST. Gallen's away record stands at 9W 10D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.49 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 21W 17D 33L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 28W 20D 23L in their last 71 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.74 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
2
Draws
2
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 51%, FC ST. Gallen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Yverdon Sport) and 37% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 29% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC ST. Gallen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 54% of FC ST. Gallen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 37% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 1, as Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 39% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 31%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 58%, FC ST. Gallen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.13 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.