Yverdon Sport 0-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Sion to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yverdon Sport — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Super League this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Yverdon Sport at 1.20 PPG versus FC Sion's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Yverdon Sport have won 0, FC Sion 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Sion in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 47% versus FC Sion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 41% | FC Sion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.25 xG and FC Sion 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.772 / defence 1.136 | FC Sion attack 0.814 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.216. Yverdon Sport's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Yverdon Sport games / 17 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 37% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 31%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | FC Sion 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Yverdon Sport 50% | FC Sion 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 37% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.25 / FC Sion 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.772 / def 1.136 | FC Sion attack 0.814 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Sion xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 37% chance of winning, FC Sion a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion?
Record (1 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Sion in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC Sion's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.20
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.38
1.12
FC Sion xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.12 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 5D 8L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion's form line: 6W 5D 6L from 17 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.00 PPG, FC Sion on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
The Goals Picture
Yverdon Sport are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.41 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Sion away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yverdon Sport
3
Draws
1
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion?
From 4 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 0, FC Sion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yverdon Sport see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 38%, FC Sion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Yverdon Sport) and 50% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 38% of games; FC Sion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Sion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 50% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 50% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Sion tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat Yverdon Sport 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat Yverdon Sport 0-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.25 xG and FC Sion 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Yverdon Sport fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against FC Sion attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 37% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 31%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 41%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Sion's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.00 PPG, FC Sion 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.