Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise to face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all games): 3W 1D 4L across 8 Super League fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yverdon Sport have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 2.14. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.25 vs 1.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yverdon Sport in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 71% and Yverdon Sport 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 86% | Yverdon Sport 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.53 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.661 / defence 1.300 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.833 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.307. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 7 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 37% | Draw 31% | Yverdon Sport 32%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Yverdon Sport 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 60% | Yverdon Sport 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 37% | Draw 31% | Yverdon Sport 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.53 / Yverdon Sport 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.661 / def 1.300 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.833 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Yverdon Sport xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 37% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack at 0.66x the league average against Yverdon Sport's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.83x) against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.24
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
2.95
1.42
Yverdon Sport xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.42 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Yverdon Sport, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yverdon Sport by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Lausanne-Ouchy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yverdon Sport's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.86 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Early Season
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 1.00 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Yverdon Sport won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50%, Yverdon Sport 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 50% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 75% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's matches and 50% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Regular Season - 8, as Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Yverdon Sport drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.53 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.42 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.66 / defence 1.30 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 37% | Draw 31% | Yverdon Sport 32%, with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 86%, Yverdon Sport 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yverdon Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.