Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round as Stade Lausanne-Ouchy welcome FC Sion to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
FC Sion away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, FC Sion 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.85 xG and FC Sion 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC Sion attack 0.889 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.300. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 72 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 26%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | FC Sion 3.85. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.85 / FC Sion 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC Sion attack 0.889 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Sion xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 48% chance of winning, FC Sion a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. FC Sion (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC Sion's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.94
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
3.18
1.33
FC Sion xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
4%
24.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.33 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
The Goals Picture
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; FC Sion in 0%.
Defensively: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, FC Sion in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0
Draws
0
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion?
From 2 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 2, FC Sion have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 6 June 2023, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play FC Sion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's recent matches and 0% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's recent games and 0% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Sion tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat FC Sion 4-2 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Relegation Round, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.85 xG and FC Sion 1.33 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC Sion attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 0/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 26%, with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0%, FC Sion 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.