Servette FC 2-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Servette FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Servette FC vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 29 January 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC at Stade de Genève this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Genève.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Servette FC against 0.90 for FC Sion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Servette FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Servette FC 58% versus FC Sion 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 54% | FC Sion 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.33 xG and FC Sion 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.900 / defence 0.806 | FC Sion attack 0.977 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.480. Data: 52 Servette FC games / 53 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Sion 30%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | FC Sion 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Servette FC 50% | FC Sion 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Sion 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Servette FC 1.33 / FC Sion 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.900 / def 0.806 | FC Sion attack 0.977 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC Sion xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs FC Sion kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Servette FC 2 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Sion part of?
Servette FC vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 37% chance of winning, FC Sion a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Servette FC and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Record (1 meetings): Servette FC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in?
Servette FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (0.90) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.98x) against Servette FC's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.02
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Servette FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.17
FC Sion xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.17 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 15D 19L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion's form line: 16W 13D 23L from 52 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Servette FC against 1.17 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.33 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Sion away?
Servette FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won 5-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Servette FC
7
Draws
0
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 3, FC Sion have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Servette FC 0-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Servette FC 54%, FC Sion 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Servette FC) and 58% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: Servette FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Servette FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Servette FC's games and 69% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Servette FC's recent games and 58% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Servette FC and FC Sion tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Servette FC and FC Sion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC and FC Sion finished level at 2-2 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.33 xG and FC Sion 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Sion outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against FC Sion attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Sion 30%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 54%, FC Sion 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.33 PPG, FC Sion 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.