Lausanne 1-3 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lausanne (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lausanne face Grasshoppers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuiliere in Super League, Relegation Group - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuiliere: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Grasshoppers have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Grasshoppers away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Lausanne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lausanne, 1 for Grasshoppers and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 61% versus Grasshoppers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 64% | Grasshoppers 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.79 xG and Grasshoppers 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.885 / defence 1.090 | Grasshoppers attack 0.850 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.427. Data: 66 Lausanne games / 66 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 26%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Grasshoppers 3.85. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 60% | Grasshoppers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Relegation Group - 38 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Lausanne 1.79 / Grasshoppers 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.885 / def 1.090 | Grasshoppers attack 0.850 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Grasshoppers xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 1 - 3 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Relegation Group - 38 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 46% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Record (8 meetings): Lausanne 3W | Draws 4 | Grasshoppers 1W.
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.66
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.11
1.32
Grasshoppers xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
4%
22.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.32 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 25W 20D 30L from 75 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 38L across 75 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.27 PPG, Grasshoppers on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 16W 8D 13L from 37 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 7W 8D 22L across 37 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.19 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
Grasshoppers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 25W 20D 30L in their last 75 games (1.27 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 17W 20D 38L in their last 75 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Grasshoppers away?
Lausanne's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.51 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
5
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 62%, Grasshoppers 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Lausanne) and 46% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lausanne's games and 49% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lausanne's matches and 46% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grasshoppers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat Lausanne 1-3 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Relegation Group - 38, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.79 xG and Grasshoppers 1.32 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Grasshoppers attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 46% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 26%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Grasshoppers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 64%, Grasshoppers 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.27 PPG, Grasshoppers 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.